The Barbell Theory of Software Value: How AI is Reshaping Tech's Power Structure
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For decades, the software industry operated on a simple premise: Build it, sell it, scale it. But the AI revolution is shattering that model. When Mehmet MHY began developing his "Internal Software Leverage Theory," he suspected that selling traditional software was becoming economically untenable. Why? Because AI allows competitors to replicate features in weeks, not years. His revelation crystallized after reading Guyren G Howe's "Programming in the Age of Abundance," which argued that cheaper programming would unleash software everywhere. These seemingly contradictory ideas—abundance versus moats—converged into what MHY now calls The Barbell of Software Value.
The Erosion of the Middle Ground
Market signals in 2025 confirm the barbell's emergence. Consider:
- Cursor's $9.9B valuation: Despite being labeled an "AI wrapper," the IDE thrives by solving repository-scale context management and enterprise security—problems generic tools ignore. When Microsoft and Amazon cloned features via GitHub Copilot and Kira, Cursor survived through superior system-level execution.
- Vertical specialists like Bild AI: This YC-backed startup dominates construction blueprint analysis—a niche where ROI is undeniable and big tech won't tread.
- Corporate power moves: Walmart consolidated operations into four internal "super agents," while JPMorgan's proprietary LLM suite serves 200,000 employees. These aren't products; they're competitive moats.
Meanwhile, McKinsey reports 78% of companies now use AI, and Bain notes generative AI adoption in 95% of U.S. firms. But CFOs are simultaneously cutting SaaS sprawl. As MHY observes:
"Generic horizontal SaaS is squeezed by AI-driven feature parity and vendor consolidation. The only SaaS that survives is highly vertical and ROI-proven."
Why the 2010s Playbook Fails
The horizontal SaaS boom (Slack, Zoom) relied on viral adoption and frictionless onboarding. But today:
- Microsoft bundles Teams into Office 365
- Salesforce entrenched itself through vertical expansion
- AI replicates features at near-zero marginal cost
This commoditization hollows out the middle. Value now concentrates at two poles:
| Platforms & Primitives | Private Internal Leverage |
|---|---|
| Cloud infra (AWS/Azure) | Proprietary tools using internal data |
| Foundational models (OpenAI) | Custom agents (e.g., Walmart's AI) |
| Orchestration layers | Domain-specific workflows |
| Wins via distribution/bundling | Wins via operational compounding |
Strategic Imperatives
For developers and founders, the barbell demands deliberate positioning:
- Build platforms requiring massive scale/distribution
- Create vertical SaaS with painful, industry-specific integrations (e.g., Bild AI)
- Develop internal leverage—proprietary systems that accelerate core operations
As MHY concludes: "Abundance means more software everywhere, but selling it gets weaker as a moat. The reconciliation is the barbell." In this reshaped landscape, the greatest rewards lie not in generic solutions, but in extremes only the focused can own.
Source: The Barbell of Software Value by Mehmet MHY