For two decades, NASA’s Orion crew capsule has symbolized America’s return to deep space exploration. According to aerospace engineer Casey Handmer’s comprehensive technical dissection, it represents a staggering failure of engineering rigor, program management, and fiscal responsibility that now jeopardizes both astronaut lives and US leadership in space.

The Unfathomable Cost of Failure

  • $30+ Billion Wasted: Orion’s development costs exceed $30 billion – six times SpaceX’s Crew Dragon development and more than SpaceX’s entire Human Landing System (HLS) contract. Marginal launch costs alone hit $1 billion per flight.
  • Schedule Collapse: Originally slated for 2013 operations, Orion’s first crewed flight (Artemis II) is now delayed to 2026. Development has taken longer than training a new engineer from infancy to graduation.
  • Comparative Catastrophe: SpaceX’s Crew Dragon achieved operational status in 2020 after 4 years and ~$500M. Lockheed’s Orion, after 20 years and $30B, remains unproven with astronauts.

Engineering Malpractice: Mass, Mission, and Thermodynamics

The Weight of Incompetence

  • Orion’s launch mass (33+ tonnes) dwarfs Crew Dragon (12.5 tonnes) and nearly matches an empty Boeing 737. Its Launch Abort System alone (7 tonnes) equals a Soyuz spacecraft.
  • Chronic mass growth forced NASA to restrict astronaut size in 2009 rather than address structural bloat.
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Orion's mass breakdown reveals a fundamentally overweight design (Source: Casey Handmer)

A Capsule to Nowhere

  • Thermodynamic Trap: Orion’s European Service Module provides only 1,450 m/s ΔV – insufficient for lunar orbit insertion/return (requiring ≥1,640 m/s). Apollo’s service module offered 2,800 m/s.
  • Architectural Farce: SLS/Orion cannot reach lunar orbit. NASA’s Lunar Gateway ‘solution’ adds unnecessary complexity requiring 5+ launches for a single landing vs. Starship’s potential single-launch architecture.

The Lethal Heat Shield Scandal

  • Material Mismanagement: Orion uses AVCOAT (Apollo-era ablative material) instead of SpaceX’s superior PICA-X, despite Lockheed successfully using PICA for Mars rovers.
  • Artemis I Failure: 2022’s uncrewed test revealed ">100 chipped areas," unexpected char loss, and deep pits – clear signs of uncontrolled spalling.
  • Pencil-Whipped Risk: NASA modified the heat shield formula without full testing, then altered Artemis II’s re-entry profile to reduce thermal load. Two review board members publicly disputed NASA’s claim of unanimous safety approval.
    > "NASA spent nearly three years manufacturing a technical justification to do exactly what they wanted to do anyway... It was cited as a key cause of the Deepwater Horizon disaster."
    > — Casey Handmer
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Artemis I heat shield damage revealed catastrophic spalling (Source: NASA, via Handmer)

Systemic Rot: From Software to Safety

  • ECLSS Roulette: Life support systems deferred for years will debut on Artemis II’s lunar flyby – a week-long mission with no abort options post-TLI.
  • Electrical Peril: 24 power interruptions occurred on Artemis I. Radiation-induced faults were 'solved' via software patch.
  • Hatch Hazard: A critical pressure-equalization valve omission (recalling Apollo 1) took 7+ years to address.
  • Fraudulent Oversight: Whistleblowers report Lockheed "playing the game" – exaggerating impact of requirements changes to justify delays/bonuses.

The $100B Elephant in the Room

SLS and Orion combined have consumed nearly $100 billion. As Handmer starkly frames it:

"If I took $100b in $20 bills and stapled them end to end, they would run... all the way to the Moon, around the entire lunar equator... and back to my desk."

Why This Matters: China’s Shadow Looms

China aims for a 2029 human lunar landing. NASA’s paralysis risks ceding the Moon to an authoritarian regime while squandering taxpayer funds on a system Acting Administrator Duffy admits should be canceled post-Artemis III. Every month of Orion spending equals a Crew Dragon lunar flyby mission via Falcon Heavy.

The Algorithm for Survival

Handmer endorses SpaceX’s ruthless efficiency:
1. Delete unnecessary processes/systems
2. Simplify and optimize relentlessly
3. Accelerate cycle time
4. Automate rigorously

"SLS and Orion do not meet NASA’s internal safety standards," Handmer concludes. "Delete without mercy before this flaming garbage claims lives and America’s future in space."

Source: NASA's Orion Space Capsule is Flaming Garbage by Casey Handmer, October 31, 2025. All technical claims and images sourced from original analysis.