Cloud storage provider Backblaze reports its lowest Annualized Failure Rate (AFR) since 2022 at 1.36%, with significant improvements across most drive models despite some high-failure outliers in Q4.
Cloud storage provider Backblaze has published its 2025 annual drive reliability report, revealing an overall Annualized Failure Rate (AFR) of 1.36%—the company's best performance since 2022. The report, based on 344,196 drives running for 115,638,676 cumulative days, shows a 21 percentage point improvement over the previous year's 1.57% AFR.
Industry-Wide Reliability Improvements
Every drive model in Backblaze's data centers experienced at least one failure during 2025, but several models demonstrated exceptional reliability. The Seagate ST16000NM002J 16TB and Western Digital WUH722626ALE6L4 26TB each recorded only one failure for the entire year, with the latter having been deployed for just one quarter. The Toshiba MGO9ACA16TE 16TB followed closely with only three failures, while the Seagate ST12000NM000J 12TB and HGST HMS5C4040BLE640 4TB recorded four and five failures respectively.
Q4 2025 High-Failure Outliers
Despite the overall positive trend, Backblaze identified three drive models with concerning failure rates during the fourth quarter of 2025:
- HGST HUH728080ALE600 8TB: 10.29% AFR
- Seagate ST10000NM0086 10TB: 5.23% AFR
- Toshiba MG08ACA16TEY 16TB: 4.14% AFR
The company investigated the HGST drive's double-digit failure rate, ruling out temperature and airflow issues. Vibration appears to be the primary culprit, though the drives' age—approximately 7.5 years—prompted Backblaze to begin retiring them from service.
Firmware Updates Show Promise
The Toshiba MG08ACA16TEY's 4.14% failure rate represents significant improvement from the previous quarter's 16.95% AFR. Backblaze attributes this dramatic reduction to a firmware update that has been rolled out across its fleet. The company expects failure rates to continue normalizing as the update propagates.
Market Context and Cost Pressures
While acknowledging that drive technology has improved over the years with increasing capacity and decreasing cost per gigabyte, Backblaze notes that the storage market has been affected by the memory chip and storage shortage that began in late 2025. Hard drives, though still more affordable than RAM and SSDs, have seen prices surge by approximately 46%. The Seagate Barracuda 24TB, for example, now retails for around $500.
Industry Implications
The report provides valuable insights for data center operators and enterprise storage planners. The overall improvement in AFR suggests that drive manufacturers continue to enhance reliability, even as capacities increase. However, the Q4 outliers demonstrate that even established models can experience unexpected failure patterns, emphasizing the importance of continuous monitoring and proactive maintenance.
For organizations planning storage infrastructure, the data suggests that modern high-capacity drives from major manufacturers can be expected to deliver reliable service, though careful attention to firmware updates and environmental factors like vibration remains essential for optimal performance.
The complete dataset and methodology are available through Backblaze's transparency initiative, which has been tracking drive reliability since 2013 and has become an authoritative source for industry-wide reliability trends.
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