In 2025, North Korean state-sponsored hackers operating under the Lazarus Group banner executed a series of high-profile cryptocurrency heists, culminating in a staggering $2 billion theft—a 51% increase from the previous year. This included a single $1.5 billion attack on cryptocurrency exchange Bybit in February [1]. Such astronomical figures invite a provocative question: If this cybercrime syndicate were evaluated as a Silicon Valley startup, dubbed "Lazarus Inc.," what would its valuation be? The exercise isn't just theoretical; it exposes alarming truths about the economics of modern cyber warfare.

Crunching Lazarus Inc.'s Financials

Lazarus Inc.'s hypothetical revenue stands at $2.02 billion. Converting stolen crypto into liquid cash incurs substantial laundering costs, estimated at 20-30% via intermediaries like mixers and brokers [2]. Using a midpoint of 25%, this translates to $500 million in expenses. Labor is another key outlay: intelligence reports indicate North Korea employs 6,000–8,400 personnel in cyber operations, spanning hacking, malware development, and money laundering [3]. Assuming a 7,000-strong workforce at $50,000 per operator (a premium estimate), salaries total $350 million.

Subtracting these costs yields an operating profit of $1.17 billion—a remarkable 58% margin. For context, this surpasses the profitability of giants like Microsoft or Apple, placing Lazarus Inc. among the world's most efficient software entities.

The Rule of 40 Benchmark

In software-as-a-service (SaaS) investing, the Rule of 40—adding growth rate to profit margin—signals premium valuations for scores above 40%. Lazarus Inc.'s 51% growth plus 58% margin delivers a 109% score, dwarfing the median 15% for public SaaS firms [4]. Only Palantir, with a 114% score, rivals this performance, justifying its $450 billion valuation at a 100x revenue multiple.

Unassailable Competitive Advantages

Lazarus Inc. operates with unique moats:
- Nation-state backing ensures zero regulatory oversight or extradition risk.
- Minimal customer acquisition costs, relying on low-effort spear-phishing campaigns.
- Proprietary assets, including a growing arsenal of zero-day exploits.
- Talent retention is enforced through coercion, preventing defections to rivals.
As one analyst noted, "Their 'market' of unsecured crypto wallets is global, and their CAC is pennies."

Valuation Estimates: From $17.5B to $200B

Applying Palantir's 100x revenue multiple pegs Lazarus Inc. at $200 billion—surpassing Intel or Goldman Sachs. A risk-adjusted approach, however, considers the non-recurring nature of theft-based revenue. Using a conservative 15x multiple on EBITDA ($1.17 billion) lowers the valuation to $17.5 billion. Balancing factors like talent lock-in and regulatory immunity, a midpoint estimate of $25–35 billion emerges—comparable to defense tech firm Anduril and quadruple Lyft's valuation.

Cybersecurity's Dangerous Asymmetry

This analysis highlights a grim reality: State-sponsored threat actors like Lazarus Group are outpacing defenders in growth and profitability. Legitimate cybersecurity firms grapple with competition, liability, and procurement hurdles, while adversaries operate with impunity. With Lazarus Inc.'s revenue surging, 2026 could see even costlier attacks, forcing a reevaluation of global digital asset protections.

Sources:
[1] Chainalysis 2025 Crypto Crime Report
[2] The Hacker News on Money Laundering
[3] The Cyber Express on North Korea's Cyber Army
[4] Blossom Street Ventures SaaS Data
[5] Blossom Street SaaS Metrics