Memory crunch threatens to kneecap Chromebook shipments • The Register

The global PC market is bracing for a significant downturn in 2026, with Chromebook shipments facing the steepest decline of all platforms. According to market research firm Omdia, total global PC shipments are projected to fall by 12 percent this year, with desktop PCs declining 10 percent to 53.2 million units and laptops dropping 12 percent to 192.2 million units. The primary culprit behind this contraction is a severe memory shortage driven by the explosive growth of AI infrastructure, which has fundamentally altered the economics of the global hardware market.

The Memory Price Surge

The memory crisis has been building for months, with mainstream memory and storage configurations jumping between $90 and $165 since the start of 2025. This represents a dramatic increase that has forced PC manufacturers to abandon promotional pricing, raise purchase prices, and adjust product specifications. Omdia forecasts that memory prices will rise another 60 percent in the first quarter of 2026 alone, creating unprecedented pressure on the entire PC supply chain.

This price inflation is particularly problematic for lower-margin devices. Major manufacturers like Lenovo, HP, and Dell are prioritizing production of higher-margin devices that can better absorb rising component costs. The strategy makes business sense but leaves budget-conscious consumers and education buyers in a difficult position.

Chromebooks Bear the Brunt

ChromeOS platforms are forecast to experience the most severe impact, with shipments expected to shrink by 27.6 percent year-on-year in 2026. This compares to a 12.1 percent decline for Windows devices and a relatively modest 4.8 percent drop for macOS computers. The education-heavy nature of the Chromebook market makes it especially vulnerable to these supply constraints.

"The supply-driven downturn in 2026 will not affect all PC platforms equally," said Kieren Jessop, research manager at Omdia. "Chrome devices face the steepest decline at 28 percent, as the education-heavy platform is particularly exposed to tighter component allocation, lower margins, and the discontinuation of some memory and storage products."

Education institutions, which have long relied on Chromebooks for their affordability and simplicity, now face difficult choices. With buyers of sub-$500 computers being more sensitive to price fluctuations, many are likely to delay purchases or reduce order sizes, creating a negative feedback loop that further depresses sales.

Apple's Advantage

Apple's vertically integrated supply chain and premium positioning provide it with relative insulation from the memory crisis. While the company isn't immune to rising component costs, its ability to control more of its supply chain and command higher prices for its products means it can weather the storm better than competitors focused on the budget segment.

The AI Infrastructure Connection

The root cause of this memory shortage lies in the massive investment in AI infrastructure. Memory chip manufacturers have reallocated manufacturing capacity to produce high-margin components for AI servers and GPUs rather than the everyday memory chips needed for PCs and other consumer devices. This shift represents a fundamental reallocation of resources in the semiconductor industry.

Context, another market research firm, confirms this trend in its separate report on the European IT distribution market. The market grew 5.2 percent during 2025, outperforming the 3.6 percent originally forecast, but this growth is expected to slow to just 2.1 percent in 2026 as supply constraints and pricing pressures linked to the AI market affect hardware availability.

"The demand for specialized components used in AI infrastructure is pulling production capacity away from other parts of the hardware market," said Aaron Smith, senior analyst at Context. "It is beginning to influence how the entire hardware market behaves: from supply chains and pricing to the way organisations prioritise their IT investments."

Regional Complications

Adding to the complexity, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have introduced "substantial uncertainty" for international transport and regional market growth. US and Israeli attacks on Iran could cause further complications in the supply chain, depending on how long the conflict persists. These geopolitical factors compound the already challenging supply situation.

Market Evolution

The memory shortage has already begun reshaping the PC market. HP recently reported that memory's contribution to PC costs has doubled to 35 percent, forcing the company to make difficult decisions about product configurations and pricing. Some memory and storage products have been discontinued entirely, reducing options for manufacturers and consumers alike.

Reports this week indicate that NAND flash prices have jumped by as much as 50 percent overnight, which could have an even greater impact on system pricing if the increase proves to be more than just a temporary market blip.

The Road Ahead

The 12 percent projected decline in PC shipments assumes that subsequent price increases throughout 2026 will moderate as pressure eases. However, if the situation deteriorates further, PC shipments could decline by 15 percent or more. The rapidly evolving nature of the crisis makes precise forecasting difficult.

For education buyers, budget-conscious consumers, and organizations that have come to rely on affordable computing solutions, the memory crunch represents a significant challenge. The days of readily available, low-cost Chromebooks and other budget PCs may be numbered as long as AI infrastructure continues to consume an outsized share of global memory production capacity.

The situation underscores a broader trend in the technology industry: the growing divide between premium and budget computing, and the increasing difficulty of maintaining affordable options in a market increasingly driven by high-margin AI applications. As memory prices continue their upward trajectory, the entire PC market faces a period of adjustment that will likely result in fewer choices and higher prices for consumers, with the most vulnerable segments bearing the heaviest burden.