The Next Two Years of Software Engineering: Five Critical Questions Shaping Our Future

The software industry stands at a complex crossroads. Between AI agents automating development tasks, economic shifts favoring efficiency over growth, and a new generation of developers entering the workforce, the next two years will redefine engineering roles. Addy Osmani's analysis presents five critical questions with contrasting scenarios for each, providing actionable strategies rather than predictions.

1. Will Junior Developers Still Enter the Field?

Core Tension: Entry-level hiring could collapse as AI automates junior tasks, or rebound as software spreads to non-tech industries.

Scenario A: Harvard research shows junior developer employment drops 9-10% within six quarters of AI adoption. With senior engineers using tools like Cursor or Antigravity to replace small teams, companies increasingly bypass $90K junior roles.

Scenario B: AI becomes a force multiplier creating developer roles in healthcare, agriculture, and manufacturing. Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of 15% job growth through 2034 materialize as "AI-native" developers build niche solutions.

Action Plan:

• Juniors: Master AI tools while understanding every generated line. Build portfolios with API integrations.
• Seniors: Automate grunt work via CI/CD and AI testing while advocating for talent pipeline sustainability.

2. Will Foundational Skills Atrophy?

Core Tension: Programming fundamentals could diminish as AI writes code, or become more crucial for oversight.

Scenario A: With 84% of developers regularly using AI, new engineers skip fundamentals like algorithm implementation. Deskilling leads to missed vulnerabilities in AI-generated code.

Scenario B: Humans focus on the hardest 20%—architecture, edge cases, and security validation. Expertise becomes about knowing when to distrust AI outputs.

Action Plan:

• Juniors: Use Claude Code or Gemini CLI as learning tools, but rewrite algorithms manually.
• Seniors: Specialize in system-level thinking and AI output validation for critical systems.

3. Will Developer Roles Shrink or Expand?

Core Tension: Engineers risk becoming AI auditors or evolve into system orchestrators.

Scenario A: Developers transition to "code janitors" reviewing AI-generated PRs, losing creative agency.

Scenario B: Engineers become "composers" designing architectures where AI agents handle execution. Roles blend technical strategy with ethical oversight.

Action Plan:

• Juniors: Develop systems thinking through CI pipeline and monitoring work.
• Seniors: Lead architectural decisions and define AI usage policies.

4. Specialist vs. Generalist: Which Thrives?

Core Tension: Narrow specialists risk obsolescence while T-shaped generalists gain advantage.

Scenario A: Experts in single stacks face redundancy when AI automates their niche (e.g., SQL optimization).

Scenario B: Developers with deep core skills plus broad adaptability integrate AI across domains. 45% of roles now demand multi-domain proficiency.

Action Plan:

• Juniors: Pair frontend/backend exposure with one deep specialization.
• Seniors: Map skill gaps and integrate expertise into emerging areas like ML pipelines.

5. Does Traditional Education Still Matter?

Core Tension: Universities may lose relevance to faster learning paths.

Scenario A: Four-year degrees deliver outdated curricula while employers spend billions bridging skill gaps.

Scenario B: Bootcamps, AI tutors, and employer academies dominate. 45% of companies drop degree requirements for verified skills.

Action Plan:

• Aspiring Devs: Build portfolios with real projects, not just degrees.
• Leaders: Implement skills-first hiring and internal training pipelines.

The Path Forward

The next two years won't follow a single trajectory but will blend these scenarios. Teams that master AI-assisted development while cultivating uniquely human skills—system design, ethical judgment, and creative problem-solving—will thrive regardless of shifts. As economic pressures and technological acceleration collide, the engineers who actively shape their tools rather than react to them will define our industry's future.