Apple Overtakes Samsung in Global Smartphone Market Amid Modest Industry Recovery

The global smartphone market recorded its first meaningful growth in three years during 2025, with shipments rising 2% year-over-year according to Counterpoint Research's latest industry analysis. This rebound reverses the prolonged contraction that plagued the industry since 2022, signaling a cautiously optimistic recovery phase.

Apple emerged as the clear winner in this turnaround, securing 20% market share—a 10% year-over-year growth rate that propelled it past Samsung for the first time since 2011. Samsung captured 19% market share, maintaining its historical stronghold but losing the top position it held for over a decade. This shift represents a significant realignment in the $500 billion smartphone industry.

Two primary drivers fueled this growth: surging premium segment demand and revitalized momentum in emerging markets. High-end devices ($600+) now constitute 25% of global shipments, up from 21% in 2024. Apple capitalized on this trend with its iPhone 17 series featuring advanced AI integration and titanium builds, commanding an average selling price of $940. Meanwhile, Samsung's foldable portfolio saw mixed reception, with supply chain data showing flat year-over-year performance for its flagship Galaxy Z Fold 7 series.

Emerging markets proved critical to the recovery story. India recorded 8% shipment growth, Vietnam 12%, and Brazil 7%—all exceeding global averages. Apple's strategic manufacturing expansion in India (now producing 25% of iPhones locally) enabled aggressive pricing strategies in price-sensitive regions. Simultaneously, Samsung faced inventory challenges in Southeast Asia following distribution restructuring efforts.

Financial implications are already materializing: Apple's Q4 2025 services revenue grew 15% year-over-year to $24.3 billion, demonstrating how hardware dominance fuels ecosystem monetization. Samsung's mobile division profits declined 3% during the same period despite cost-cutting measures.

Looking forward, three strategic questions dominate industry analysis:

1. Sustainability of Apple's lead given Samsung's planned AI-focused Galaxy S30 series
2. Margin pressures as Chinese manufacturers (Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo) regain traction with 30% cheaper alternatives
3. Impact of component shortages affecting display and memory supplies through Q2 2026

The premiumization trend shows no signs of slowing, with Counterpoint forecasting high-end devices to reach 28% market share by 2027. However, emerging market growth remains fragile—rising import tariffs in Brazil and India could disrupt the current momentum. This delicate balance between premium demand and emerging market accessibility will define the next phase of smartphone industry evolution.