Forrester: AI and automation to eliminate 10.4 million US jobs by 2030, but it's a structural shift, not a collapse

Forrester's latest employment forecast paints a picture of gradual workforce transformation rather than sudden automation-induced catastrophe. The analyst firm projects that AI and automation will eliminate 10.4 million US jobs by 2030—representing 6.1% of current positions. While that number sounds staggering, Forrester vice president and principal analyst J.P. Gownder puts it in perspective: the US lost 8.7 million jobs during the Great Recession, but those losses were cyclical and temporary, while AI-driven displacement is structural and permanent.

The key distinction Forrester emphasizes is the pace of change. Their models suggest a "real but modest impact" between 2025 and 2030, with the more likely scenario being that AI will augment rather than replace one in five roles by the forecast's end. This augmentation model requires significant investment in staff training, as employers prepare workers for a fundamentally different relationship with technology.

The Agentic AI Acceleration

What's changed since Forrester's 2023 forecast? Two major developments: the arrival of agentic AI and the market's growing experience with generative AI projects. Agentic AI systems—applications that can autonomously execute multi-step workflows—have moved from research to commercial deployment. Organizations are using these systems to build what Forrester claims are more accurate, problem-specific applications.

This shift has dramatically altered the forecast's composition. Where Forrester's 2023 analysis saw just 29% of automation-driven job losses coming from generative AI, that figure has jumped to 50%. This accounts for agentic solutions that leverage GenAI as their foundation. The analyst also notes that the percentage of jobs "influenced" by AI has nearly quadrupled compared to the 2023 forecast.

The SaaS Automation Push

Major enterprise software providers are already positioning their platforms as workforce replacements. Salesforce, Workday, and ServiceNow have all introduced AI-powered automation features designed to handle tasks previously performed by human employees. This corporate push creates pressure on businesses to adopt automation strategies, whether they're ready or not.

However, Forrester warns this rush to automate carries significant risks. The firm identifies "over-automating roles" based on AI hype as a primary concern, citing potential outcomes including costly pullbacks, damaged reputations, and weakened employee experiences. The analyst points to real-world examples: Duolingo and Klarna both attempted aggressive AI workforce replacement strategies and subsequently rowed back their efforts.

The Reality Check

Forrester's data suggests many companies are moving too fast. The firm reported one million US layoffs in 2025, with some attributed to AI. But Gownder reveals a critical disconnect in his discussions with clients: "When we ask if they have a mature, vetted AI app ready to fill in those jobs, nine out of ten times, the answer is no—and they haven't even started."

This reveals that most current AI-related layoffs are financially driven, with AI serving as a convenient scapegoat rather than a genuine replacement technology. Companies are cutting staff to improve margins, then justifying it with AI narratives.

Forrester expects 55% of corporations to regret rushing ahead with AI automation projects, leading them to quietly rehire workers. This pattern matches what we've seen with early GenAI implementations that promised productivity gains but delivered inconsistent results.

What Actually Changes

The forecast suggests a nuanced future where AI takes over specific workflows and tasks, but humans remain the primary workers for the next five years. The 20% of positions that will be "influenced" by AI represents roles where human workers will need to collaborate with AI systems, requiring new skills and different workflows.

This creates a training imperative. As AI handles more routine tasks, workers will need to develop capabilities in oversight, exception handling, and complex problem-solving. The jobs that remain will likely require higher-level thinking and the ability to work effectively alongside AI systems.

Forrester's analysis ultimately suggests that while AI will reshape the employment landscape, the transformation will be measured and structural rather than sudden and catastrophic. The companies that succeed will be those that invest in augmentation rather than replacement, and that develop mature AI strategies before making workforce decisions.

The forecast serves as both warning and roadmap: AI will indeed transform work, but the winners will be organizations that move deliberately, invest in their people, and avoid the temptation to use AI as a justification for cuts without a clear automation strategy in place.