NASA safety panel warns Artemis III Moon landing plan is too risky

NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) has issued a stark warning about the agency's plans for the Artemis III Moon landing mission, calling it an "extraordinarily ambitious" undertaking with too many technical firsts to be attempted in a single flight.

The panel's latest report, released this week, highlights the unprecedented complexity of Artemis III, which aims to land astronauts near the lunar South Pole using SpaceX's Starship-derived Human Landing System (HLS). The mission would mark the first time NASA has relied on this vehicle, which has yet to achieve orbit, let alone travel to the Moon.

According to the ASAP report, the mission would require approximately 15 in-space refuelings - another first for NASA - and would be the first time a crew would use the HLS. These multiple "firsts" have led the panel to formally classify the mission as high risk.

The panel's primary recommendation is to adopt a more stepwise approach, similar to the Apollo program's methodology. During the 1960s and early 1970s, NASA gradually built up to the Moon landing through a series of increasingly complex missions. Apollo 7 tested the command module in Earth orbit, Apollo 8 orbited the Moon, Apollo 9 tested the Lunar Module in Earth orbit, and Apollo 10 performed a "dress rehearsal" that included everything except the actual landing.

This methodical approach allowed NASA to identify and address issues at each stage before attempting the next milestone. The panel argues that Artemis III's current plan attempts to accomplish too much in one mission, creating unacceptable risk.

Beyond technical concerns, the report highlights significant resource constraints facing NASA today compared to the Apollo era. During the height of the Moon race, NASA employed over 35,000 full-time staff. That number has dropped dramatically, nearing 15,000 in 2025 according to the report. The agency also operates with a fraction of the budget it had during the Apollo missions.

These resource limitations make the current approach even more problematic. "Rebalancing objectives is thus essential to the safe achievement of the national objective – returning the United States to the Moon," the report states.

The timing of this warning is particularly significant as NASA faces multiple challenges across its programs. The report also covers the troubled Boeing Starliner program, ongoing issues with the aging International Space Station, and concerns about obsolete spacesuits that astronauts will need to work outside the outpost.

While there may be political pressure to achieve a Moon landing within the current US administration, the ASAP report emphasizes that technical and resource realities must take precedence over political timelines. The panel's assessment suggests that attempting to compress too many objectives into Artemis III could jeopardize not just that mission, but the entire Artemis program.

The recommendation to restructure Artemis III represents a significant shift in thinking about how to return humans to the Moon. Rather than attempting a single, complex mission, NASA may need to break down the objectives into multiple, more manageable flights that build upon each other's successes - exactly as it did during the Apollo era.

This approach would likely extend the timeline for achieving a Moon landing but could substantially reduce risk and increase the likelihood of success. As the report concludes, it's better to rethink the objectives than to attempt to cram too much into just one mission.

The ASAP's assessment adds to growing concerns about NASA's current trajectory and may prompt agency leadership to reconsider the ambitious timeline and objectives for Artemis III. With safety as the paramount concern, the panel's recommendations could reshape how America returns to the Moon.