Despite a blockbuster launch, Sora 2's growth is decelerating, raising questions about the long-term market for standalone AI video apps.
The initial hype cycle for AI video generation is meeting market reality. According to data from Appfigures reported by Sherwood News, OpenAI's Sora 2 amassed approximately 6 million downloads on iOS and 3.1 million on Android by the end of December 2025. While these numbers are substantial, the story lies in the trend: growth is beginning to slow. The app saw 1 million downloads in its first five days, a velocity that has clearly decelerated over the subsequent weeks.
This slowdown presents a fascinating counter-narrative to the prevailing sentiment that AI-generated video is an immediate, mass-market revolution. The initial surge was fueled by intense media coverage and the novelty of generating high-quality clips from text prompts. However, sustaining that momentum requires more than just novelty; it requires utility, repeat engagement, and a clear value proposition for the average user.
Several factors could be contributing to this cooling-off period:
The Invite-Only Friction: For its first month, Sora 2 was iOS-only and required an invite. While this strategy often creates scarcity and desire, it also builds a barrier to entry that can stifle viral growth. By the time Android users got access in early November, the initial buzz may have already peaked among the iOS early adopters.
Utility vs. Novelty: The current iteration of AI video tools, while impressive, often requires specific prompting techniques to achieve desired results. For the casual user, the effort-to-reward ratio might not yet be compelling enough for daily use. The novelty of creating a 10-second clip of a cat skateboarding wears off quickly if you don't have a practical or creative use for it.
Platform Integration: The standalone app model faces an existential threat from platforms that integrate these features directly. If users can generate similar content within TikTok, Instagram, or their native camera roll, the incentive to download a separate app diminishes. The future of AI video generation may not be in dedicated apps, but as a feature within existing creative suites and social platforms.
The "Pro" Ceiling: The data doesn't distinguish between free and paid users. Many who downloaded the app may have hit the usage limits of the free tier and decided the subscription wasn't worth it. The true measure of success will be the conversion rate to paid plans, which remains opaque.
The counter-perspective, of course, is that 9 million downloads in a few months for a niche creative tool is still a phenomenal success. It demonstrates a clear appetite for the technology. The slowdown might simply be a natural plateau after capturing the most interested early adopters. The real test will be the next few quarters: will Sora 2 find a stable, engaged user base, or will it be remembered as a flash in the pan?
The broader pattern here is a maturing understanding of AI's role. We're moving past the "wow" phase and into the "what for?" phase. For AI video, the killer app hasn't emerged yet. It might be in professional storyboarding, rapid marketing content creation, or a form of entertainment we haven't imagined. But for now, the initial gold rush seems to be settling into a more measured pace, forcing developers to think beyond the initial splash and focus on genuine, sustainable user value.
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