In 1950, physicist Enrico Fermi posed a deceptively simple question over lunch at Los Alamos National Laboratory: Given the billions of stars in our galaxy and the high probability of habitable planets, where is everybody? This became known as the Fermi Paradox—a puzzle highlighting the contradiction between cosmic abundance and evidence of intelligent life.

Today, a new paradox emerges in the software development landscape. Many proclaim that AI can now generate working software for pennies on the pound, in a fraction of the time human developers require. Some herald the dawn of commoditized, throwaway software, suggesting the end of traditional software industries. Why invest in a CRM or ERP system when an AI can generate one in minutes? Why subscribe to a SaaS platform when tools like Cursor can replicate it instantly?

Yet, when we look beyond the hype, the evidence is conspicuously absent. No AI-generated Spotify or Salesforce dominates the market. No LLM-crafted games top the app store charts. No noticeable surge of AI-native products disrupts established ecosystems. The question echoes: where is everybody?

The Gorman Paradox encapsulates this disconnect between AI's theoretical capabilities and its tangible impact on software production.

The Hype vs. Reality

Proponents point to impressive demos: AI generating entire web applications, writing complex algorithms, or debugging legacy code in seconds. Tools like GitHub Copilot and Tabnine have integrated AI into developer workflows, promising productivity leaps. The narrative suggests AI will democratize software creation, enabling non-programmers to build sophisticated systems.

However, the market tells a different story. Despite billions in AI investment and rapid model advancements, we lack foundational AI-native products that challenge incumbents. The absence of AI-generated equivalents to enterprise systems like SAP, Salesforce, or Microsoft Azure indicates a gap between code generation and viable product creation.

Why the Discrepancy?

Several factors explain this paradox:

  1. Beyond Code Generation: Software isn't just code. It requires domain expertise, system architecture, security hardening, and integration with complex ecosystems. AI excels at generating snippets but struggles with holistic design.

  2. Quality and Reliability: AI-generated code often contains subtle bugs, security vulnerabilities, or performance issues. Enterprises can't risk critical systems on unvalidated outputs.

  3. The "Last Mile" Problem: Deploying, maintaining, and scaling software requires human oversight. AI can't replace DevOps, UX design, or customer support—essential for commercial success.

  4. Business Viability: Building a product requires market research, business strategy, and monetization models—areas where AI offers minimal advantage.

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The Hidden Costs of AI Development

While AI accelerates coding, it introduces new complexities:
- Hallucination Risks: Models confidently generate incorrect information, requiring rigorous validation.
- Technical Debt: Rapidly generated code often lacks maintainability, creating long-term liabilities.
- Infrastructure Demands: Running large models demands significant computational resources, offsetting cost savings.

The Future of Software Development

The Gorman Paradox doesn't diminish AI's potential—it reframes it. AI will augment developers, not replace them. The most impactful applications will likely be:
- AI Pair Programming: Tools that assist with boilerplate code while humans focus on architecture and innovation.
- Domain-Specific Generators: Models trained on niche industries (e.g., healthcare compliance, financial regulations).
- Automated Testing: AI that generates test cases and identifies edge cases humans might miss.

As AI evolves, we may see the paradox resolve—perhaps not through mass-produced throwaway software, but through specialized tools that enhance human creativity. The future won't be about AI replacing developers, but about developers leveraging AI to build things previously unimaginable.

Source: [Codemanship, "The Gorman Paradox: Where Are All The AI-Generated Apps?", codemanship.wordpress.com, 2025-12-14]