Trump underwater on issues that got him elected, polling shows

Recent polling from major outlets like Pew Research Center and Gallup shows former President Donald Trump facing a critical challenge: he is now underwater on the core issues that defined his 2016 campaign and secured his election. On the economy, immigration, and trade—platforms that resonated deeply with his base—his approval ratings have dipped into negative territory, with disapproval exceeding approval by margins of 5 to 12 percentage points in recent surveys.

This shift represents a stark reversal from 2016, when Trump's hardline stances on these issues were central to his appeal. At that time, his message on renegotiating trade deals, building a border wall, and revitalizing American manufacturing helped him capture key swing states. Today, however, voters are expressing frustration over persistent inflation, which has eroded purchasing power despite broader economic indicators showing growth. The consumer price index has remained elevated, with core inflation hovering around 3.5% as of late 2023, dampening enthusiasm for his economic promises.

On immigration, Trump's signature issue, polling shows a majority of voters now view his policies as too extreme. A Pew survey from October 2023 found that 58% of respondents disapproved of his approach to border security, citing concerns over humanitarian impacts and economic costs. This comes amid a backdrop of record border crossings, which have strained resources and fueled public debate. Trade, another pillar of his platform, has also seen a decline in support. His tariffs on Chinese goods, initially popular for protecting domestic industries, are now viewed by 52% of voters as harmful to the U.S. economy, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, due to higher consumer prices and retaliatory measures.

The implications for the 2024 election are profound. Trump's ability to mobilize his base depends on maintaining strength on these issues, but the data suggests a growing gap between his rhetoric and voter priorities. For instance, in swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan—where manufacturing jobs were a key promise—approval on trade has fallen by 8 points since 2020. This could force a strategic pivot, potentially emphasizing other themes like law and order or cultural issues, though those have not historically driven his electoral success to the same degree.

Analysts point to several factors behind the downturn. The post-pandemic economic recovery has been uneven, with wage growth lagging behind inflation for many households. Additionally, the political climate has evolved, with younger voters and independents showing less appetite for protectionist policies. The polling trends also align with broader demographic shifts; Trump's support among voters over 50 remains strong, but he struggles with those under 45, who prioritize issues like climate change and healthcare over trade and immigration.

Looking ahead, these numbers could reshape campaign strategies. Trump's team may double down on economic messaging, highlighting job creation under his administration, or pivot to attack the current administration's handling of the border. However, the data indicates that without addressing the root causes of voter dissatisfaction—such as cost-of-living pressures—his standing may continue to erode. For Democrats, this presents an opportunity to reclaim voters alienated by Trump's policies, though they must navigate their own challenges on economic issues.

In summary, the polling underscores a pivotal moment in American politics: the issues that once defined Trump's electoral strength are now liabilities. As the election cycle intensifies, these trends will be closely watched, offering a window into whether Trump can adapt his message or if his 2016 coalition is fracturing under the weight of unmet expectations.