U.S. and Israel Coordinate New Sanctions Targeting Iran's Oil Revenue Streams

President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finalized a joint strategy to escalate sanctions enforcement against Iranian oil exports during their December 2025 meeting at Mar-a-Lago, according to diplomatic sources familiar with the negotiations. The agreement signals a significant tightening of existing measures designed to cripple Tehran's primary revenue source, which currently funds both its nuclear program and regional military operations.

Market analysts project immediate supply disruptions could remove between 1.2-1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from global circulation—equivalent to approximately 1.5% of worldwide supply. This comes as oil prices already hover near $85/barrel for Brent crude amid production cuts from OPEC+ nations. Further price increases appear inevitable, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a potential $8-$12 per barrel premium if enforcement mechanisms prove effective.

The coordinated strategy leverages three primary pressure points: enhanced maritime surveillance to identify sanction evaders, secondary sanctions targeting international buyers of Iranian crude, and diplomatic isolation of nations continuing trade with Tehran. Treasury Department data indicates Iranian oil exports currently generate $15-$20 billion annually—funds that directly support the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and missile development programs.

Strategic implications extend beyond commodity markets. Iran's likely countermeasures include increased harassment of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (through which 21 million barrels pass daily) and accelerated uranium enrichment activities. Meanwhile, China remains the wildcard, having imported 650,000 barrels per day from Iran in Q3 2025 despite existing sanctions. Any substantial Chinese compliance with the new regime would fundamentally alter the equation.

Energy economists warn of global inflationary consequences, noting that every $10 increase in oil prices adds 0.5% to U.S. inflation rates. Refiners across Asia face particular vulnerability, with Indian and South Korean facilities processing Iranian grades potentially requiring costly feedstock substitutions. The sanctions framework is expected to be fully operational by Q2 2026, giving energy traders limited adjustment time before implementation.