US Intelligence Warns Tech CEOs: China Could Invade Taiwan by 2027

In a striking revelation that underscores the fragility of global semiconductor supply chains, senior US intelligence officials conducted classified briefings in July 2023 with some of the tech industry's most powerful executives, warning them that China's military buildup suggested Beijing could be prepared to move on Taiwan by 2027.

Among those reportedly in attendance were Apple CEO Tim Cook, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, AMD CEO Lisa Su, and Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon. The briefings, conducted by CIA Director William J. Burns and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, conveyed the most current classified intelligence directly to corporate leadership about the timeline for potential Chinese action against Taiwan.

The 90% Problem: Why Taiwan Matters

The stakes could not be higher for these companies. Taiwan produces roughly 90 percent of the world's most advanced semiconductors, primarily through Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). This concentration of critical manufacturing capability in a geopolitically tense region represents what industry analysts have long described as the semiconductor industry's Achilles' heel.

A blockade or invasion would immediately disrupt global chip supply chains, with cascading effects across consumer electronics, AI infrastructure, automotive manufacturing, and defense systems. The interconnected nature of modern technology means that virtually every electronic device, from smartphones to data centers, depends on these advanced chips.

Beyond Talking Points: From Theory to Concrete Planning

While US defense officials have publicly referenced the 2027 timeline before, this briefing appears to have been the first time such specific classified intelligence was shared directly with corporate leadership. The message was clear: geopolitical risk is no longer theoretical.

For companies whose business models depend on predictable access to advanced silicon, the timeline matters enormously. In 2021, "by 2027" sounded like a talking point from congressional testimony. Today, it represents a concrete planning window that executives must factor into their strategic decisions.

The Reshoring Challenge

The backdrop to these briefings was the Biden administration's push to reshore semiconductor manufacturing through the CHIPS Act, followed by the Trump administration's more aggressive use of tariffs to force procurement shifts. Intelligence warnings were part of a broader effort to convince companies that geopolitical risk was no longer theoretical.

However, building leading-edge capacity in the US has proven expensive and slow. Even where new fabrication plants are coming online in Arizona and Texas, advanced packaging capabilities remain concentrated in Taiwan, meaning some US-made chips still require critical finishing steps overseas.

Corporate Response: Awareness Without Action

Perhaps most tellingly, the report states that after the July 2023 briefing, Cook told officials he sleeps "with one eye open." Despite this acknowledgment of the existential risk, Apple and other major US tech firms did not substantially accelerate new domestic chip purchase commitments in the immediate aftermath, according to people familiar with the matter.

In fact, both Intel and Samsung lost out on CHIPS grants because they were unable to secure customers for domestic chip fabrication. This disconnect between awareness and action highlights the fundamental challenge: while companies understand the risk intellectually, the economic incentives to maintain the status quo remain powerful.

Economic Armageddon: The Cost of Disruption

The economic implications of a Taiwan disruption are staggering. A 2022 industry-commissioned study cited in the report projected an 11 percent drop in US GDP under a severe Taiwan disruption scenario. That number will have only gone up in the interim, as mostly imaginary AI spending has propped up the US GDP considerably in the last four years.

To put this in perspective, the 2008 financial crisis saw US GDP contract by approximately 4.3 percent at its worst. A Taiwan disruption could therefore represent economic damage more than twice as severe as the worst financial crisis in recent memory.

The Structural Gap

The broader geopolitical tension has been well understood for years; what this reporting adds is confirmation that US intelligence agencies have privately communicated a concrete planning window to the executives who run the companies most exposed to that risk. Despite this, the gap between awareness and structural supply chain change remains significant.

The seemingly cavalier attitude of US tech firms to the risk could have major consequences in the tragic event of war in the Taiwan Strait. While companies continue to operate under the assumption that business will proceed as usual, the clock is ticking on a scenario that could fundamentally reshape the global technology landscape.

The question now is whether the industry will take meaningful action before 2027 or continue to operate under the assumption that the status quo can be maintained indefinitely. Given the catastrophic economic consequences of being wrong, the stakes could not be higher for both corporate leadership and the global economy.