Hard drive prices surge 46% as AI data centers absorb enterprise HDD supply

Hard drive prices have increased by an average of 46% across popular models since September 2025, according to pricing analysis from German outlet ComputerBase. The research tracked 12 mainstream drives, finding increases ranging from 23% to 66% for models from Seagate, Western Digital, and Toshiba. This trend is mirrored in U.S. markets, where the Seagate IronWolf 4TB has risen from $70 to $99, and the 8TB model now costs $199 compared to $130 two years ago. Western Digital's Red Plus 8TB sits at $175, up from previous lows.

The most dramatic increase affects the Seagate BarraCuda 24TB, an iconic drive for bulk storage enthusiasts. Previously available for as little as $239 during promotional periods, it now commands $499 on Amazon—sold by third-party sellers—and is out of stock at major retailers like Newegg. This price movement represents more than typical seasonal fluctuation; it signals a structural shift in the hard drive market driven by the AI industry's insatiable demand for storage.

The AI Storage Pipeline

While hard drives aren't directly affected by the DRAM and HBM memory shortages that have driven RAM and SSD prices up by 100% or more, they serve a critical role in AI infrastructure. Training large language models requires petabytes of data—text, images, and code—that must be stored economically. Unlike high-performance NVMe SSDs used for active training, bulk data repositories rely on high-capacity hard drives for cost-effective capacity.

Manufacturers are responding to this demand by pivoting production toward enterprise-grade drives designed for data centers. These drives feature higher areal density, optimized firmware for sequential reads/writes, and reliability enhancements for 24/7 operation. The Seagate Exos series, for example, now reaches 24TB and 28TB capacities, while Western Digital's Ultrastar line pushes similar boundaries. Consumer lines like BarraCuda and IronWolf are being deprioritized in the production queue.

This supply reallocation creates a classic economic squeeze. With fewer units available for the consumer market and sustained demand from both traditional NAS users and AI startups building storage clusters, prices naturally rise. The 46% average increase reflects this imbalance, with specific models seeing even steeper jumps when they overlap with enterprise specifications.

Supply Chain Context

The hard drive industry has consolidated significantly over the past decade, with Seagate, Western Digital, and Toshiba controlling nearly all manufacturing. This oligopoly means production decisions have immediate market-wide effects. When all three manufacturers shift capacity toward enterprise drives, consumer availability contracts rapidly.

Manufacturing complexity compounds the issue. Modern hard drives require precision components: magnetic platters coated with exotic materials, read/write heads that float nanometers above the surface, and controllers managing data integrity. Retooling production lines for different drive types isn't instantaneous. A factory producing 8TB consumer drives can't immediately switch to 24TB enterprise models without significant reconfiguration.

The COVID-19 pandemic's supply chain disruptions established a precedent for rapid price increases in storage. However, this current surge differs in its cause. Previous spikes were driven by factory closures or component shortages. Today's increase stems from deliberate reallocation of existing capacity toward higher-margin enterprise products.

Market Implications

For consumers building PCs or upgrading home servers, the timing is unfortunate. The rise of AI has already pushed GPU prices to unprecedented levels, with high-end cards like the RTX 4090 selling for 2-3x MSRP. RAM and SSD prices followed suit, making DDR4 systems more attractive than DDR5 for budget-conscious builders. Now, bulk storage joins the list of components affected by AI's infrastructure demands.

Small businesses and home lab enthusiasts face particular challenges. A 24TB drive at $500 represents a 109% price increase from its $239 low. For a six-bay NAS requiring six drives, the storage cost alone jumps from $1,434 to $2,994—a difference that could determine whether a project proceeds or is shelved.

Enterprise customers, while paying more, at least have access to supply. Data centers building AI training clusters can secure bulk orders of high-capacity drives, often through direct manufacturer relationships. The consumer market, reliant on retail channels, experiences stockouts and price gouging from third-party sellers.

Looking Ahead

Industry analysts expect this trend to continue through 2026. The AI buildout shows no signs of slowing, with major tech companies and startups alike investing billions in training infrastructure. Each new model requires exponentially more data, creating a persistent demand for storage capacity.

Manufacturers are expanding production, but new facilities take years to come online. Seagate's new manufacturing plant in Thailand, for example, won't reach full capacity until late 2026. Until then, supply will remain tight.

For consumers, the message is clear: if you need bulk storage, buying sooner rather than later may save money. However, with prices already elevated, some may choose to wait for the next generation of drives, which promise even higher capacities (30TB+) and potentially better value per terabyte once production stabilizes.

The hard drive market's transformation mirrors the broader semiconductor industry's evolution. What was once a commodity component for PC builders has become strategic infrastructure for AI development. This shift benefits manufacturers' bottom lines but leaves consumers paying the price for progress in artificial intelligence.

Stephen Warwick, Tom's Hardware News Editor, contributed to this report.

Sources: ComputerBase pricing analysis, Amazon product listings, Seagate product information, Western Digital product information