Neal Stephenson Declares VR Goggles Dead, Metaverse Dream Fizzles

Neal Stephenson, the science fiction author who coined the term "metaverse" in his 1992 novel Snow Crash, has declared that head-mounted VR hardware is a dead end and that the metaverse dream has fizzled out.

In a recent post reflecting on Meta's decision to end its metaverse work after spending an estimated $80 billion, Stephenson admitted he and others who believed immersive environments would require head-mounted hardware got it wrong. Twenty years ago, while working at virtual reality hardware company Magic Leap, he would ask colleagues: "Do you really think that twenty years from now everyone is still going to be going around all day staring at little rectangles in their hands?" At the time, the answer seemed obvious to him - no.

Now, Stephenson believes that even 20 years into the future, smartphones will still dominate. "Or at least that is the case if the only alternative is wearing things on their faces."

The fundamental problem, according to Stephenson, is human psychology and social trust. When someone holds up their phone, it's obvious you are on camera. That's not true with glasses or goggles. "Maybe this should have been obvious to me given the amount of time, effort, and money people put into making their faces look as good as possible," he reflected.

Even slimming metaverse-ready hardware down to resemble conventional eyeglasses won't solve the problem, Stephenson argues, because such devices "have the unintended side effect of making these things seem sinister." When someone's wearing a head-mounted display, you don't know whether they're looking at you or not. This creates an inherent creepiness factor that Stephenson believes cannot be overcome.

The VR headwear market has become a dead end due to low sales making it a risky proposition for developers. "No developer is going to enter the infinitesimal headset market without strong financial incentives," he suggested. When hardware-dependent platforms close, "all of the software that depended on them effectively ceases to exist." Developers who spent years crafting interactive art have seen their work wiped out, making it very unlikely they'll sign on to build content for future headset generations.

So what became of the metaverse? Stephenson thinks it evolved into multiplayer gaming. "Roblox has something like 380 million monthly active users. Minecraft has something like 60 million. Fortnite has 650 million registered players," he wrote. Fortnite's success shows that the idea of the metaverse becoming a place to live out daily life has proven incorrect.

Stephenson explains that when you enter a Fortnite play session, you know in general - but not in detail - what's going to happen, and you know it'll be over in about twenty minutes. This narrative structure is crucial. "It's quite easy to get carried away thinking about how cool it would be to actually build a system that could, on an engineering level, do the things that the fictional technology is depicted as doing in the book or the movie," he wrote. "Having built it, though, you might discover that it's just a lot of randos milling around waiting for something to happen."

After noting that Meta burned through $80 billion pursuing his 1992 vision, and that his opinions may therefore be worth ignoring, Stephenson suggested the successors to Fortnite will advance the metaverse concept. "This is only the beginning of what will become possible in coming years," he wrote. "Even one one-millionth of what Meta spent is enough to fund significant progress in this area if you have a small, talented, and dedicated team."

The metaverse, it seems, has found its home not in VR goggles but in the games we already play on our phones and consoles - a far cry from the immersive virtual worlds Stephenson once imagined.