Trip.com Shares Plunge 19% Amid China Antitrust Investigation

Shares of Trip.com Group plummeted 19% in Thursday trading following China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) announcement of an antitrust investigation into the travel platform. The probe targets alleged monopolistic tactics by China's dominant online booking service, marking the latest escalation in Beijing's regulatory crackdown on tech giants.

This investigation places Trip.com alongside Alibaba, which faced a record $2.8 billion fine in 2021 for antitrust violations, in the regulatory crosshairs. China's antitrust enforcement has intensified since 2020, with regulators imposing over $1.2 billion in fines across the tech sector last year alone. The scrutiny now expanding into travel services signals regulatory concerns about market concentration beyond e-commerce and fintech.

Financial analysts immediately revised Trip.com's outlook, with Morgan Stanley cutting its price target by 15%, citing potential penalties ranging from 4-10% of annual revenue based on precedent. Trip.com reported $8.3 billion in 2025 revenue, suggesting exposure to fines exceeding $800 million. More significantly, the probe threatens the company's core growth strategy: its ambitious plan to double overseas revenue within five years. International expansion requires heavy investment in global partnerships and marketing, resources that may now be diverted toward compliance and restructuring.

The investigation coincides with shifting travel patterns affecting Trip.com's operations. Recent data shows Chinese hotel bookings in Japan surged 210% year-over-year during Lunar New Year despite geopolitical tensions, while overall foreign visitors to Japan are projected to decline 3% in 2026 due to reduced Chinese tourism. This complex landscape amplifies regulatory risks, as Trip.com's domestic market dominance—estimated at 68% of online travel bookings—becomes a liability under China's antitrust framework.

For investors, the 19% single-day erosion represents approximately $3.5 billion in market capitalization loss, reflecting heightened risk premiums for Chinese tech stocks. Industry observers note SAMR's investigations typically last 6-18 months, during which merger activity and pricing strategies face heightened scrutiny. Competitors like Qunar and Fliggy could gain market share if Trip.com is forced to alter its platform algorithms or exclusivity agreements with hotels and airlines.

This development underscores Beijing's continued focus on platform economics, where regulators increasingly intervene when single players control over 50% market share. With Trip.com joining food delivery, ride-hailing, and e-commerce platforms under investigation, China's tech sector faces persistent regulatory uncertainty despite recent efforts to ease foreign investment restrictions.