New analysis reveals AI-related investment now represents about 1% of US GDP – roughly half the economic footprint of the 1990s dot-com boom but comparable to the shale revolution. The data suggests cautious optimism amid rapid growth.
The artificial intelligence investment surge has reached a significant economic milestone while still falling short of historical tech booms, according to a new Financial Times analysis. Economist Jason Furman's research shows AI-related spending now accounts for approximately 1% of US GDP. This places it at roughly half the economic scale of the 1990s dot-com bubble (which peaked at 2% of GDP) but on par with the mid-2010s shale energy boom.
The findings provide crucial context amid overheated AI market rhetoric. Furman's methodology tracks investment in information processing equipment and software – tangible indicators beyond venture capital hype. His analysis, detailed in a Bank for International Settlements working paper, reveals that while AI adoption accelerates, its economic imprint remains measured compared to previous technological revolutions.
Several factors explain the tempered scale. Unlike the dot-com era's widespread infrastructure buildout, today's AI investment concentrates in specialized hardware like Nvidia's chips and cloud computing upgrades. The Microsoft AI Diffusion Report 2025 notes uneven global adoption, with the UAE leading at 64% working-age usage while other regions lag. This contrasts with the internet's near-simultaneous global rollout.
Market indicators reinforce the nuanced picture. AI firms drove nearly 40% of 2025's $166.5 billion global convertible bond issuance – the highest since 2001 – as companies sought cheaper capital for AI projects. Yet newly listed Chinese AI chipmakers like Moore Threads and Biren trade at fractions of established players' valuations, reflecting investor caution about near-term monetization.
The GDP comparison carries practical implications. At 1% of economic output, AI investment sits comfortably below levels that historically triggered bubble concerns. This suggests room for continued growth without immediate overheating risks. However, the concentration in few sectors (versus dot-com's broader dispersion) creates vulnerability if core technologies plateau.
As regulatory scrutiny intensifies globally – from Indonesia's Grok ban to China's new data governance proposals – the investment trajectory faces policy headwinds. The next phase will test whether AI can achieve internet-level economic penetration while avoiding boom-bust cycles. For now, the numbers signal a boom in progress, not yet at fever pitch.
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