Memory price explosion triggers PC buying spree • The Register

Exploding memory prices are pushing corporate buyers to fast-track PC purchases before costs climb further. DRAM and NAND have already soared 80 to 90 percent since the final quarter of 2025, as The Register recently reported, and further bill shocks are forecast as the year progresses.

PC makers are starting to witness this dynamic. Lenovo today reported revenue of $15.8 billion for its Intelligent Devices Group (IDG), up 14 percent year-on-year, with PC revenues within that up 18 percent. A similar effect was seen early last year when a tariff threat from the Trump administration caused a spike in trade as resellers and buyers alike tried to buy up boxes and get them through customs before the cost of imports jumped.

The memory supply shortage and the rising cost situation is "unprecedented," said Lenovo chief Yang Yuanqing, speaking on an analyst call to discuss its earnings. "DRAM cost increased by 40 to 50 percent last quarter, but the current quarter versus last quarter almost doubled again, even with the contract price. So this structural imbalance between supply and demand is not simply a short-term fluctuation. It's likely to have a prolonged impact on the industry throughout this year," he stated.

On the other hand, a volatile market could become an opportunity for Lenovo, Yuanqing added. Lenovo's view is that high material costs will likely constrain demand for PCs and smartphones later in 2026, "but that's just from a unit volume point of view," he said. "Given the higher pricing and the market shifting to the premium segment because of AI PCs, we believe the overall PC revenue market will still grow year-over-year."

In other words, available devices will carry a higher price tag, cushioning lower shipment volumes.

CDW, one of the world's largest resellers, also forecast stronger hardware growth in the first half of this year as many buyers bet that bumping purchases forward will avoid higher prices. "We believe to the best of our ability that we're going to see about the same amount of pull forward in Q1 or slightly more than we actually saw in December," president and CEO Christine Leahy said during CDW's recent earnings call.

Analyst Omdia said PC shipments in Q4 2025 were higher than forecast due to a significant amount of pulled forward demand from the channel. On average, mainstream PC DRAM and SSD prices jumped by nearly 100 percent and 40 percent respectively during 2025. Omdia forecast a rise of another 60 percent for DRAM and 70 percent for flash memory this quarter alone.

The memory crisis is likely to be a prolonged situation where consumers and enterprises will eventually have to adjust to the new higher price points, rather than expect a quick return to previous levels. The PC market could see a 10 percent shipment decline, Omdia warns, shrinking back to 2023 levels, with the risk of a 15 percent decline if all the costs are passed on to buyers.

This price surge represents one of the most significant disruptions to the PC market in recent years. Unlike previous supply chain issues that were primarily logistical, this crisis stems from fundamental imbalances between supply and demand for memory components. The situation has been exacerbated by several converging factors:

AI PC demand surge: The push toward AI-capable PCs has dramatically increased memory requirements. AI workloads require significantly more RAM and faster storage than traditional computing tasks, putting additional pressure on already constrained supply chains.

Manufacturing constraints: Memory fabrication facilities are operating at maximum capacity, but building new fabs takes years and billions of dollars. The industry is essentially capacity-constrained in the short to medium term.

Geopolitical tensions: Trade restrictions and export controls have complicated the global memory supply chain, making it harder for manufacturers to optimize production and distribution.

Component shortages: The memory crisis has created ripple effects throughout the PC ecosystem. SSD prices have jumped 40 percent, and the shortage of DRAM modules is forcing manufacturers to make difficult choices about which products to prioritize.

For corporate buyers, the situation presents a difficult calculus. Purchasing PCs now at inflated prices may be preferable to waiting and facing even higher costs later, but it also ties up capital that could be used elsewhere. Many organizations are accelerating their refresh cycles, moving purchases forward from later in 2026 to the first half of the year.

The impact extends beyond just PCs. Smartphones, servers, and other devices that rely on memory components are all facing similar price pressures. This could have broader implications for digital transformation initiatives and technology adoption across industries.

Lenovo's strategy of focusing on premium AI PCs represents one potential path forward. By targeting higher-end devices with better margins, the company can maintain revenue growth even as unit volumes potentially decline. This approach assumes that businesses and consumers will continue to invest in more capable devices despite higher prices, particularly if those devices offer meaningful productivity benefits through AI capabilities.

However, this strategy may not work for all market segments. Small and medium-sized businesses, educational institutions, and price-sensitive consumers may find themselves priced out of the market or forced to extend the life of existing devices longer than planned.

The memory price crisis also raises questions about the sustainability of current computing architectures. If memory costs remain elevated for an extended period, it could accelerate research into alternative approaches to AI computing that are less memory-intensive, or drive innovation in memory technologies that offer better performance per dollar.

For now, the PC industry appears to be in a holding pattern, with buyers rushing to secure inventory before prices climb further, while manufacturers and analysts try to gauge how long the current situation will persist and how the market will ultimately adjust to the new price reality.