Study Quantifies Ozempic's Impact on U.S. Food Spending Patterns

When pharmaceuticals originally developed for diabetes management become widely adopted for weight loss, their economic ripple effects extend beyond individual health outcomes. A Cornell University study published in the Journal of Marketing Research analyzes actual transaction data to quantify how GLP-1 receptor agonists like Ozempic and Wegovy reshape consumer food purchasing behavior.

The research team led by Sylvia Hristakeva and Jura Liaukonyte from Cornell's Dyson School leveraged a unique dataset pairing self-reported GLP-1 usage surveys with granular purchasing records from Numerator, a market research firm tracking transactions for approximately 150,000 representative U.S. households. By comparing adopters against demographically similar non-users, they isolated spending changes attributable to medication adoption.

Key findings reveal substantial behavioral shifts:

• Grocery spending decreases by 5.3% within six months of starting treatment, rising to over 8% among higher-income households
• Restaurant expenditures decline by approximately 8% at limited-service establishments (fast food, coffee shops)
• Ultra-processed categories show the sharpest reductions: savory snacks (-10%), sweets (-9%), baked goods (-8%)
• Increases occur in few categories: yogurt (+6%), fresh fruit (+3%), nutrition bars (+2%)

The study tracked longitudinal patterns, finding sustained spending reductions persist for at least a year among continuous users. However, discontinuation reverses these effects: Households that stopped taking medications not only returned to baseline spending levels but showed slightly unhealthier purchasing patterns than pre-treatment, with increased candy and chocolate expenditure.

Demographic analysis indicates adoption grew from 11% of U.S. households in late 2023 to over 16% by mid-2024. Weight-loss users skew younger and wealthier, while diabetes patients are older and more evenly distributed across income brackets. Approximately one-third of users discontinued treatment during the study period.

Methodological limitations warrant consideration. The transaction data cannot fully disentangle biological appetite suppression from concurrent lifestyle changes like increased nutritional awareness. However, the reversion to baseline after discontinuation suggests pharmacology plays a significant role. The dataset also captures spending rather than consumption quantities.

These findings carry implications beyond individual households:

• Food manufacturers may need reformulate products as demand shifts away from hyper-palatable snacks
• Restaurant chains could face structural demand changes, particularly in quick-service segments
• Public health policymakers gain evidence about how biological interventions affect dietary choices compared to regulatory approaches

The study provides empirical grounding for understanding GLP-1's economic impact, with Hristakeva noting: "At current adoption rates, even modest household-level changes aggregate to significant market effects."

Read the full study in the Journal of Marketing Research