The Great Turnover: 9 in 10 Companies Plan To Hire in 2026, Yet 6 in 10 Will Have Layoffs

A new survey from Resume.org reveals a striking paradox in corporate workforce planning for 2026: while 92% of companies plan to hire, 55% also expect layoffs, with many using AI as a convenient explanation for workforce reductions.

The data shows companies are simultaneously expanding and contracting, with 86% planning to hire in Q1 2026 while 48% say layoffs will definitely or probably occur in the same quarter. This apparent contradiction reflects what Resume.org's Head of Career Advising Kara Dennison calls "workforce rebalancing" - companies are cutting roles in areas that no longer align with near-term priorities while hiring aggressively in functions tied to revenue, transformation, and efficiency.

The AI Excuse Problem

Perhaps most tellingly, 59% of companies admit they emphasize AI when explaining hiring freezes or layoffs because it plays better with stakeholders than citing financial constraints. Only 9% say AI has fully replaced certain roles, while 45% report it has partially reduced the need for new hires. Nearly half (45%) say AI has had little to no impact on staffing levels.

"AI has become an explanation because it sounds strategic, forward-looking, and inevitable," Dennison explains. "Saying roles are being affected by AI signals innovation and modernization, while acknowledging financial strain can raise concerns among investors, employees, and customers."

However, this strategy may backfire. Employees are increasingly perceptive when AI is used as a blanket explanation but workloads don't meaningfully change, leading to eroded trust and damaged morale.

What Companies Actually Want

For job seekers, the survey reveals clear priorities. Problem-solving skills top the list at 54%, followed by the ability to learn new tools quickly (44%) and communication skills (43%). Familiarity with AI tools ranks lower at 31%, suggesting employers view AI as a useful capability rather than a core requirement.

Dennison notes that companies are buying "capability, flexibility, and impact, not titles or tenure." The most vulnerable roles tend to be higher-cost positions, layers of middle management, duplicated functions after reorganizations, and roles tied to legacy processes.

The Real Story Behind the Numbers

The survey methodology involved 1,000 U.S. hiring managers surveyed in December 2025 using Pollfish's random device engagement sampling. Companies cite AI (44%), reorganization/restructuring (42%), and budget constraints (39%) as the primary drivers behind layoffs, suggesting workforce reductions are part of broader restructuring and cost-control strategies rather than a single-factor phenomenon.

The data paints a picture of an economy in transition - not one where AI is wholesale replacing workers, but where companies are strategically reshaping their workforces to align with new operating models and priorities. For job seekers, this means opportunities exist but require adaptability, problem-solving ability, and the capacity to learn quickly.