Memory prices have begun shifting on an hourly basis as the AI-driven shortage intensifies, according to a DigiTimes report published today, with semiconductor industry insiders warning that smaller firms unable to place immediate orders with upfront payment risk sharply higher quotes within minutes.

The report describes a market now split between roughly 100 top-tier buyers with the leverage to secure supply and more than 190,000 small and mid-size enterprises fighting over what remains.

(Image credit: Getty / MirageC)

AI Data Centers Are Swallowing the World's Memory Supply

The AI boom has created an unprecedented demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DRAM, with data centers consuming vast quantities of memory to power large language models and AI workloads. This surge in demand has fundamentally altered the DRAM market dynamics, creating a two-tier system where financial clout determines access to supply.

Cloud service providers, leading automakers, and smartphone giants Apple and Samsung hold enough financial clout to resist price hikes and maintain priority allocation from memory manufacturers. Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron cannot afford to jeopardize those relationships, so these large customers get served first, while also increasingly requiring prepayment or cash transactions before confirming orders — terms that smaller firms with little bargaining power will struggle with.

According to DigiTimes, these companies began struggling to absorb soaring memory costs in the second half of 2025. As prices continued climbing into 2026, some have started revising demand forecasts downward in what amounts to a "cut losses to survive" strategy. That approach is expected to spread as high prices persist, directly reducing overall market demand for memory.

Market Data Reveals Staggering Price Increases

Last month, TrendForce revised its Q1 2026 DRAM contract price forecast upward to a 90-95% quarter-over-quarter increase, with NAND flash up 55-60% over the same period. A separate DigiTimes report published today indicates that DRAM prices could surge a further 70% in Q2 2026, while research firm IDC has warned the shortage could persist well into 2027.

HP disclosed last month that DRAM now accounts for 35% of its PC build cost, up from between 15% and 18% a quarter earlier. Meanwhile, Gartner projects PC shipments will drop more than 10% in 2026, and smartphone shipments will fall roughly 8%, both driven by memory costs. IDC expects white-box and lower-tier vendors, including DIY system builders, to bear the heaviest burden.

The Hourly Pricing Model Emerges

The shift to hourly pricing represents a fundamental change in how the DRAM market operates. Traditionally, memory prices were set on a weekly or monthly basis, allowing buyers time to evaluate quotes and make purchasing decisions. Now, with demand far outstripping supply, prices can change multiple times per day based on real-time market conditions.

This volatility creates a significant challenge for smaller businesses that lack the financial resources to make immediate purchasing decisions. A company that receives a quote at 9 AM might find the same memory module 30% more expensive by noon if they hesitate to commit.

Survival Strategies for SMEs

Industry analysts suggest several strategies for smaller businesses to navigate this challenging market:

Consolidation and bulk purchasing: Small firms are forming buying groups to increase their collective purchasing power and negotiate better terms.

Alternative memory solutions: Some companies are exploring lower-density memory modules or alternative DRAM technologies that may be more readily available. Inventory management: Businesses are holding larger safety stocks of memory to avoid being caught in price spikes, though this ties up working capital.

Diversification of suppliers: Companies are working to establish relationships with multiple memory suppliers to reduce dependency on any single source.

The Question of Market Sustainability

All this raises a question about what happens next if enough SMEs exit the market because they can't afford the premiums. If smaller buyers collectively pull back, tight capacity could soon become oversupply, potentially exposing the shortage as "illusory," says DigiTimes.

This scenario presents a paradox for the memory industry. While current conditions favor the largest players, a market dominated solely by top-tier customers may not be sustainable in the long term. The ecosystem of smaller suppliers, system integrators, and specialized manufacturers plays a crucial role in driving innovation and creating new markets for memory technologies.

Looking Ahead: The 2027 Outlook

Research firm IDC has warned the shortage could persist well into 2027, suggesting this crisis may last longer than many industry participants initially expected. The timeline depends on several factors:

HBM production expansion: Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are all investing heavily in HBM capacity, but these facilities take 18-24 months to bring online.

AI demand trajectory: The pace of AI adoption and the memory requirements of next-generation models will significantly impact future demand.

Economic conditions: A potential recession could reduce demand from some sectors while AI investment continues to grow.

Technological alternatives: Advances in memory compression, processing-in-memory, and other technologies could reduce DRAM requirements per unit of computing.

(Image credit: SK Hynix)

The current DRAM market crisis represents a fundamental shift in how memory is bought, sold, and allocated. As AI continues to drive unprecedented demand for high-performance memory, the industry must grapple with questions of market structure, pricing mechanisms, and the long-term sustainability of a system that favors the largest players at the expense of smaller innovators.

For now, the hourly pricing model and the two-tier market structure appear to be the new normal, forcing smaller businesses to adapt quickly or risk being priced out of the market entirely. The next 12-18 months will be critical in determining whether this represents a temporary disruption or a permanent restructuring of the global memory supply chain.