PC Shipments to Plummet 10.4% in 2026 as Memory Crisis Deepens

Global PC shipments are projected to fall 10.4% in 2026, marking the sharpest annual decline in over a decade, according to Gartner's latest forecast. The dramatic contraction is being driven by what the firm estimates will be a 130% surge in combined DRAM and SSD prices by year's end, fundamentally reshaping the PC market landscape.

This price explosion has already begun manifesting in real financial terms. HP disclosed during its Q1 2026 earnings call that memory now accounts for 35% of its PC bill of materials, up from 15-18% just last quarter. The company expects a sharp double-digit decline in system shipments over the remainder of the year as these price increases take hold.

(Image credit: Micron)

The memory crisis is hitting consumers directly at retail. A 32GB DDR5-6000 kit that cost between $100 and $200 in October 2025 now starts at roughly $350, with some premium kits climbing even higher. A Corsair Vengeance 32GB DDR5-6000 kit stabilized at $339 between November and January before jumping to $439 in early January. Meanwhile, a Patriot Viper Elite 5 16GB DDR5-6000 kit went from $43.99 in October 2025 to $169.99 by early December.

NAND flash prices have been hit just as hard. Phison's CEO warned that eMMC NAND common in phones and low-end devices had climbed from $1.50 to $20 per 8GB module last year—a 13-fold increase. The executive noted that at least one foundry now demands three years' cash upfront for NAND supply. Kingston confirmed it saw a 246% increase in NAND wafer prices and publicly told consumers not to wait for lower prices.

These component costs are forcing manufacturers to make difficult decisions. Gartner estimates that memory will account for 23% of a PC's total bill of materials in 2026, up from 16% in 2025. This shift eliminates vendors' ability to absorb costs on low-margin products.

"This sharp increase removes vendors' ability to absorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable," said Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner. "Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028."

The crisis extends beyond traditional PCs. Valve confirmed the Steam Deck is sold out globally due to memory and storage shortages, while Framework has raised DDR5 RAM upgrade prices by 50% for its DIY laptop edition. Motherboard sales in some markets have dropped as much as 50% as builders balk at the cost of memory.

IDC's forecast paints an even bleaker picture, projecting the worldwide PC market will decline 11.3% in 2026, with smartphone shipments expected to fall 12.9%. Both figures represent dramatic downward revisions from IDC's December 2025 scenarios, which ranged from -4.9% to -8.9% for PCs and -2.9% to -5.2% for smartphones.

The structural driver behind this crisis is the deliberate reallocation of memory manufacturing capacity from consumer DRAM and NAND toward AI-focused HBM and high-density server modules. Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron have all prioritized HBM production, with Micron even controversially shuttering its Crucial consumer business. TrendForce estimates that data centers will consume 70% of all memory chips manufactured in 2026.

For consumers and businesses, the implications are clear: PC lifetimes will extend by 15% for business users and 20% for consumers by the end of 2026. The entry-level market faces the worst of it, with Gartner advising vendors to accept unit volume declines rather than erode margins chasing price-sensitive buyers.

The first half of 2026 represents a critical window for optimizing pricing before component inflation compresses profitability further in Q2 and beyond. For the PC building community that has enjoyed years of affordable memory, the era of cheap DRAM and NAND that defined the last several years is definitively over, with nothing in the current data suggesting a return to pre-crisis pricing any time soon.

(Image credit: Micron)